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Newton Investment Management

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Newton Portal
UK Institutional UK Institutional

Blog

macro views

Gold, Box, Treasure
Blog

Gold: tailwinds?

We discuss the outlook for the precious metal.

Catherine Doyle
14 December 2020
Macro views, Real Return, Sector research
Fast forward: A journey to the future of investment
Blog

The future today: four key trends shaping the investment landscape

We analyse how the pandemic is shaping key trends affecting the investment landscape today and in the future.

Curt Custard
17 November 2020
Coronavirus, Global equities, Macro views, Real Return, Themes
Market melt-up?
Blog

Market melt-up?

Could the US election outcome and hopes of an imminent Covid-19 vaccine keep markets trending upwards?

Brendan Mulhern
12 November 2020
Coronavirus, Macro views, Real Return
US election
Blog

Biden: his time

We assess the implications of Joe Biden’s US presidential election victory.

Paul Markham
09 November 2020
Global equities, Macro views
US election
Blog

US election: bond investors shift focus to 2021

We discuss how bond markets have responded to the US election.

Paul Brain
09 November 2020
Fixed income, Macro views
US election
Blog

US election: All eyes on November

With the US election fast approaching, we assess the potential implications for markets.

Paul Markham
30 September 2020
Global equities, Macro views
Blog

Beyond Covid-19: The ‘U-bend’ recovery

Why we believe the post-pandemic economy will take some time to get back to pre-crisis levels.

Paul Brain
20 August 2020
Coronavirus, Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research, Themes
Blog

European recovery assured?

We assess the ramifications of the European Union’s €750bn deal for EU bond markets and the euro.

Paul Brain
21 July 2020
Coronavirus, Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
Is volatility here to stay?
Blog

Is volatility here to stay?

We provide our macro outlook for the second half of 2020.

Suzanne Hutchins
10 July 2020
Coronavirus, Defined contribution, Macro views, Multi-asset, Real Return
US dollar: devalue to save the world?
Blog

US dollar: devalue to save the world?

We assess how US-dollar strength will affect the global economy as it starts to recover from the pandemic.

Paul Brain
22 May 2020
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
Blog

Looking through the pandemic: The shape of the recovery

We assess some potential consequences of the pandemic, and how they may play out in the global economy.

Paul Brain, Howard Cunningham
11 May 2020
Coronavirus, Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research, Themes
Blog

Covid-19: The US goes big

We assess the potential impact of an unprecedented US fiscal stimulus package on markets.

Brendan Mulhern
26 March 2020
Coronavirus, Global equities, Macro views, Real Return
Covid-19: Looking through the crisis
Blog

Covid-19: Looking through the crisis

We analyse the impact of Covid-19 on global bond markets in anticipation of the next stage.

Paul Brain
19 March 2020
Coronavirus, Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Coronavirus: Back from the brink?

Coronavirus-induced volatility continues to plague markets, but are there some tentative early signs of recovery?

Brendan Mulhern
09 March 2020
Coronavirus, Macro views, Real Return
Going viral
Blog

Going viral

How does the spread of coronavirus affect the global investment outlook?

Brendan Mulhern
07 February 2020
Coronavirus, Macro views, Real Return
Staying joined up in a dislocated world
Blog

Staying joined up in a dislocated world

How can pension schemes and asset managers keep up with a disruptive and fast-moving investment backdrop?

Julian Lyne
09 January 2020
Industry views, Macro views
A gilt-edged pledge?
Blog

A gilt-edged pledge?

How the spending pledges from the two main political parties could affect the UK gilts market.

Howard Cunningham
12 December 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
QE 4 to the rescue? Not quite…
Blog

QE 4 to the rescue? Not quite…

Does recent US Federal Reserve activity hint at what lies ahead for US monetary policy?

Brendan Mulhern
09 December 2019
Macro views, Multi-asset, Real Return
Blog

Megacities – where themes collide

Our dynamic thematic framework helps identify structural growth opportunities created by rapid urbanisation.

Ed Geall
21 November 2019
Emerging markets & Asia, Macro views, Newton philosophy, Sector research, Themes
2019 Investment conference
Blog

Cutting through the noise

How can investors thrive in a world defined by disruption?

Charles French
04 November 2019
Macro views, Newton philosophy
Blog

Prorogue to win or prologue to a loss?

Boris Johnson has embarked upon a radical but controversial Brexit strategy.

Paul Markham
30 August 2019
Global equities, Macro views
Blog

Brexit or Brex-tension?

We assess the latest developments as the UK moves closer to the 31 October Brexit extension deadline.

Paul Markham
19 August 2019
Global equities, Macro views
Blog

Two become one

What could Boris Johnson’s victory mean for the UK’s gilt and currency markets, and future Brexit strategy?

Howard Cunningham
23 July 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Perspective on the pivot

With financial markets threatening to bounce the Fed into a fresh easing cycle, we give our perspective.

Newton Real Return team
17 July 2019
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Population prospects

Major demographic shifts will have pronounced implications for economies and investors.

Ed Geall
12 June 2019
Macro views, Sector research, Themes
Blog

Trade trouble

As tariffs are hiked again, where does the US-China trade war go from here?

Trevor Holder
29 May 2019
Emerging markets & Asia, Fixed income, Macro views, Themes
Blog

The rise and rise of ‘MMT’ economics

Modern Monetary Theory is gaining traction among policymakers, but what are the possible consequences for investors and markets?

Brendan Mulhern
28 May 2019
Macro views, Real Return, Themes
Blog

What now for Spain?

Political uncertainty could create short-term instability for Spanish bond spreads, but will it last?

Paul Brain
01 May 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Populist push
Blog

Populist push

A new ‘post-globalisation’ era may have major implications for investors.

Andy Warwick
25 March 2019
Macro views, Real Return, Themes
Blog

Inflation: the rise and fall

With consumer price inflation remaining subdued despite extreme monetary policies, should investors still worry about inflation risk?

Newton Real Return team
22 March 2019
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Charting the course

What are the investment implications of the World Bank’s key charts of 2018?

Rebecca White
20 March 2019
Macro views, Responsible investment
Blog

Groundhog May

Amid another tumultuous week, the outcome of the UK’s Brexit negotiations look even murkier.

Howard Cunningham
14 March 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Carry on Leo

The Irish and UK prime ministers are experiencing contrasting fortunes as Brexit negotiations rumble on.

Howard Cunningham
11 March 2019
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
Blog

Tick tock

As the bond-market cycle clock ticks on, we offer our outlook for 2019.

Paul Brain
11 February 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Around the world in global equities
Blog

Around the world in global equities

We assess the prospects for global equities in 2019

Paul Markham
08 February 2019
Global equities, Macro views
Blog

A year of two halves?

With a decade of financial excess now behind us, the risks appear skewed to the downside.

Brendan Mulhern
05 February 2019
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Brexit’s May day?

The UK Prime Minister’s emphatic Brexit vote loss last night raises more Brexit questions than it answers.

Paul Markham
16 January 2019
Global equities, Macro views
Blog

You can’t always get (the Brexit) you want…

Theresa May’s crushing Brexit deal defeat appears relatively meaningless compared to what might happen next.

Howard Cunningham
16 January 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Thematic investment
Blog

The investment continuum

Our recent conference panel session looked at where markets are heading against an ever-shifting backdrop.

Julian Lyne
19 December 2018
Macro views, Newton philosophy
Blog

Downward momentum

Trade confrontations may dominate the headlines, but deeper structural concerns are driving market movements.

Brendan Mulhern
10 December 2018
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Is an ‘Italexit’ on the cards?

A continuing budget dispute is leading to renewed speculation over an Italian exit from the EU.

Paul Markham
21 November 2018
Global equities, Macro views
Blog

US decoupling: can it last?

Can the US equity market continue its stellar performance into 2019?

Brendan Mulhern
25 September 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Global equities, Macro views
Blog

Turkey: the canary in the coal mine?

Are Turkey’s travails a precursor of worse to come for the global financial system as quantitative tightening starts…

Brendan Mulhern
29 August 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Macro views
Blog

The big not-so-easy?

China recently signalled a shift towards short-term economic growth by loosening monetary policy. Will this stimulate global reflation?

Brendan Mulhern
16 August 2018
Macro views, Themes
Blog

Time to unwind…

How US monetary policy affects different sectors of the bond market at different times.

Paul Brain
09 August 2018
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Call the fire brigade

We evaluate the current inflationary backdrop through the lens of our ‘fire risks’ investment theme.

Brendan Mulhern
30 May 2018
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Could tech bite twice?

The technology sector is booming, but memories of the dot-com bubble may leave investors nervous. What’s really going…

Paul Markham
24 May 2018
Macro views, Themes
Blog

Russia’s rocky road to reform

With the FIFA World Cup fast approaching, can Russia sustain an economic recovery after its deep recession?

Newton equity opportunities team
22 May 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Macro views
Blog

We’re going to need more avocados

The rise of the middle-class consumer and its implications for investors.

Ed Geall
16 May 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Macro views, Themes
Blog

Tough gig

What are the consequences of the increase in short-term contracts and freelance work for inflation and bond markets?

Paul Brain
14 May 2018
Macro views, Themes
Blog

Planting the seeds of discord

Improvements sparked by the advent of the plough help to inform our view that trade wars produce no…

Brendan Mulhern
10 May 2018
Macro views
Blog

State of the EU-nion

The eurozone appears to have weathered various crises, but it may not be out of the woods yet.

Jon Day
08 May 2018
Macro views
Blog

Sisters are doing it for themselves – and the economy

Why improving gender equality has a host of potential macroeconomic benefits.

Newton responsible investment team
30 April 2018
Macro views
Blog

From ‘doves to hawks’?

Analysing the investment landscape against a backdrop of rising interest rates.

Paul Brain
13 April 2018
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Fanning an inflationary fire

A global trade war could fuel rising inflation and renewed volatility.  

Paul Flood
04 April 2018
Macro views, Multi-asset
Blog

Up in smoke?

Is the close of an ex-rapper’s cannabis venture capital fund a sign that points to the top of…

Brendan Mulhern
26 March 2018
Macro views
Blog

A perspective on returns 3: Boom and bust

Why we think this cycle has a significant chance of ending with a bang rather than a whimper.

Newton Real Return team
20 March 2018
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

A perspective on returns 2: This time it’s different?

While many argue against the current economic cycle being a rerun of the last, we beg to differ.

Newton Real Return team
12 March 2018
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

A perspective on returns 1: Where are we now?

Have we seen an extended cyclical bull market or sustainable secular expansion?

Newton Real Return team
09 March 2018
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Year of the Dog

A look at the canine characteristics of the world’s leading central banks.

Paul Brain
07 February 2018
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
Blog

Silva lining?

Why the latest court ruling on Brazil’s former president could spell good news for its economy.

Carl Shepherd
29 January 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Ready for take-off

The structural growth story in global Chinese tourism could run for decades.

Newton global research team
15 January 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Industry views, Macro views, Sector research
2021: better income outcomes?
Blog

What next for global equities?

What lies ahead for global equity markets in 2018?

Paul Markham
10 January 2018
Global equities, Macro views
Blog

What lies ahead for fixed income?

Where are opportunities for flexible fixed-income investors likely to arise in 2018?

Paul Brain
05 January 2018
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

UK Budget: a lot to be modest about

In spite of housing and productivity initiatives, the UK’s Budget was overshadowed by a significant downgrade in growth…

Howard Cunningham
22 November 2017
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Movember for the MPC

Cautious messaging around the much-anticipated UK rate rise puts the focus squarely on the health of the economy.

Howard Cunningham, Paul Brain
03 November 2017
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Growing old irresponsibly

How prepared are governments for the ageing of their populations?

Newton equity opportunities team
24 October 2017
Macro views
Blog

The Great Deception

Is it time for central banks to disregard CPI as a guide for determining monetary policy?

Brendan Mulhern
20 October 2017
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Draining the punchbowl

As central banks start to withdraw liquidity support, can risk assets continue their strong run?

Brendan Mulhern
20 September 2017
Global equities, Macro views, Real Return
Blog

A mixed bag

Despite talk of a UK economic slowdown, the picture appears more mixed than outright negative.

Howard Cunningham
18 August 2017
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Throwing a curve ball

Has a long-held central-bank assumption on what triggers inflation become obsolete?

Brendan Mulhern
15 August 2017
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Circumventing nomadic bond markets

What approach should investors take while awaiting more certainty on monetary policy direction?

Paul Brain
01 August 2017
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Reflation fade

High hopes of a President Trump-sponsored injection into global growth have taken a hit.

Newton Real Return team
27 July 2017
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Heavy Brexit weather

What could the UK’s hung parliament mean for Brexit and fixed income markets?

Paul Brain, Howard Cunningham
09 June 2017
Macro views
Blog

What lies beneath

Strong markets and data point to confidence in economic recovery, but scratch the surface and a darker picture…

Newton Real Return team
19 April 2017
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Testing the narrative

A slowdown in credit is cause for concern for a US economy increasingly dependent on debt for economic…

Brendan Mulhern
11 April 2017
Macro views
Blog

Seconds out…for Brexit

There is much at stake for the UK and EU as Theresa May rings the starting bell for…

Howard Cunningham
29 March 2017
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Plotting the populist vote

How income inequality could be a guide to future political risk.

Jon Day
23 March 2017
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Dutch courage

EU leaders will view the Dutch election result with relief, but the bloc’s future success remains far from…

Paul Markham
16 March 2017
Macro views
Blog

Read between the lines

Are many of the recent positive US economic indicators based more on expectations than reality?

Brendan Mulhern
09 March 2017
Macro views
Blog

The great inflation hunt

Despite a growing belief that sustained global inflation may be on the cards, hurdles still remain.

Brendan Mulhern
17 February 2017
Macro views
Blog

Trump – the new Reagan?

Many investors appear to believe Donald Trump can deliver a Reagan-like reform agenda, but change will not be…

Newton Real Return team
03 February 2017
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Breaking their banks

The pressure continues to pile up on Italy's banking sector.

Brendan Mulhern, Newton global research team
07 December 2016
Macro views, Sector research
Blog

Heads together: in pictures

15 snapshots of our 2016 investment conference

Julian Lyne
29 November 2016
Macro views, Real Return, Sector research
Blog

The billionaire Robin Hood

While Trump’s election campaign championed the working poor, his election might have big implications for globalisation and investors.

Brendan Mulhern
14 November 2016
Macro views
Blog

Global warning

There are growing political and economic signs that the latest period of international cooperation is starting to unravel.

Brendan Mulhern
31 October 2016
Macro views
Blog

Rate expectations

Second-guessing the next US administration’s policies is tough, but bond investors can take some precautions.

Paul Brain
17 October 2016
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Slack magic

Why ‘2’ may not hold the magical properties central bankers believe it does.

Newton Real Return team
05 October 2016
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Ever-changing moods...

The market’s addiction to monetary stimulus is growing, while the capabilities of central bankers are being stretched to…

Paul Brain
23 September 2016
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

End of the road?

There are signs that the monetary policy regime of the last 30 years could be nearing its conclusion.

Brendan Mulhern
19 September 2016
Macro views
Blog

More trouble than it’s worth

Could the scale of US household wealth leave investors vulnerable?

Newton Real Return team
14 September 2016
Macro views
Blog

Working up a debt

Despite the palliative of loose monetary policy, the challenges of the global debt burden remain.

Newton Real Return team
03 August 2016
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Let’s get fiscal

Politicians may well turn to fiscal stimulus – financed by central banks – to fight economic weakness.

Brendan Mulhern
29 July 2016
Macro views
Blog

Warning! Yield gap reversing (again)!

What would a permanent return to a positive equity/bond yield gap mean for investors?

Newton Real Return team
26 July 2016
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Mind the gap

The seismic shift in the UK political landscape offers valuable insight into what is driving fragmentation globally.

Brendan Mulhern
01 July 2016
Macro views
Blog

Cutting the FTSE down to size

Looking past the headlines at the effect of the EU referendum on equity markets.

Newton Real Return team
30 June 2016
Macro views, Real Return, UK equities
Blog

Brexit implications

The UK’s vote to leave the EU merely adds to the importance of careful investment.

Newton Real Return team
24 June 2016
Macro views
Blog

Not-so-great expectations

The latest Federal Reserve announcement brings a sense of déjà vu for our resident strategist.

Brendan Mulhern
17 June 2016
Macro views
Blog

Labour pains

Deteriorating US labour-market data proves uncomfortable for policymakers pushing for a rate rise.

Brendan Mulhern
13 June 2016
Macro views
Blog

A re-vaulting idea

More evidence in the eurozone and Japan that the response to unconventional monetary policies isn't going to plan.

Newton Real Return team
09 June 2016
Macro views
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This is a financial promotion. Issued by Newton Investment Management Limited, The Bank of New York Mellon Centre, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London, EC4V 4LA. Registered in England No. 01371973. Newton Investment Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, 12 Endeavour Square, London, E20 1JN and is a subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. Material in this publication is for general information only. The opinions expressed in this document are those of Newton and should not be construed as investment advice or recommendations for any purchase or sale of any specific security or commodity. Certain information contained herein is based on outside sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. You should consult your advisor to determine whether any particular investment strategy is appropriate. This material is for institutional investors only. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Your capital may be at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the original amount invested.