macro views

How the theme of ‘great power competition’ could shape the macroeconomic backdrop in 2023 and beyond.

How far can the bond rally go?

We reveal our key macro findings from a recent fact-finding trip to Tokyo.

We assess the impact of the UK government’s Autumn Statement on the gilt market.

In the latest Double Take, we examine the investment implications of the continuing energy crisis enveloping the UK.

We examine how the Russian leader’s actions have affected the market’s risk premium and what might happen next.

We investigate the rapidly evolving world of cryptocurrency compliance as financial institutions plan to expand into digital assets.

Key (and sometimes surprising) findings from a recent trip to Vietnam.

We analyse potential consequences of new UK fiscal and monetary policy for UK bonds and the wider economy.

We analyse how diverging economies can create opportunities for bond investors with a global mindset.

We discuss the macroeconomic factors driving the potential return of manufacturing jobs to the US.

Why deglobalisation and supply shortages are leading to greater government intervention.

We examine the conditions that have led to increasingly high levels of inflation.

We discuss how our global equity specialists are managing the volatility of today’s market landscape.

We discuss the potential of nuclear energy and how it may fit into the global energy transition.

As conflict continues in Ukraine, we assess the potential investment implications arising from evolving Sino-Russian relations.

We investigate how big tech companies are mining personal data, and how regulators and lawmakers are responding.

We examine the long-term global structural impacts of the Ukraine war and Russia’s pariah status.

We assess what the Fed’s latest monetary-policy signalling could mean for bond markets.

We assess Russian President Vladimir Putin’s list of demands over Ukraine and future implications for Europe’s security architecture.

We assess the impact of a potential rate rise by the Bank of England next week.

Why we believe the post-Covid recovery will be different from the post-financial crisis period.

With protectionist measures on the increase globally, we discuss some of the opportunities and risks for investors.

We assess the near and mid-term implications of central-bank and government policy for bond markets.

We assess the implications of the UK Budget for bond markets and the wider economy.

Will inflation finally re-emerge in a post-pandemic recovery, and how can a balanced portfolio prepare for it?

As policy intervention ratchets up to new levels in response to Covid-19, what are the implications for investors?

We discuss the outlook for the precious metal.

Could the US election outcome and hopes of an imminent Covid-19 vaccine keep markets trending upwards?

We assess the implications of Joe Biden’s US presidential election victory.

We discuss how bond markets have responded to the US election.

With the US election fast approaching, we assess the potential implications for markets.

Why we believe the post-pandemic economy will take some time to get back to pre-crisis levels.

We assess the ramifications of the European Union’s €750bn deal for EU bond markets and the euro.

We provide our macro outlook for the second half of 2020.

We assess how US-dollar strength will affect the global economy as it starts to recover from the pandemic.

We assess some potential consequences of the pandemic, and how they may play out in the global economy.

We assess the potential impact of an unprecedented US fiscal stimulus package on markets.

We analyse the impact of Covid-19 on global bond markets in anticipation of the next stage.

Coronavirus-induced volatility continues to plague markets, but are there some tentative early signs of recovery?

How does the spread of coronavirus affect the global investment outlook?

How can pension schemes and asset managers keep up with a disruptive and fast-moving investment backdrop?

How the spending pledges from the two main political parties could affect the UK gilts market.

Does recent US Federal Reserve activity hint at what lies ahead for US monetary policy?

Our dynamic thematic framework helps identify structural growth opportunities created by rapid urbanisation.

Boris Johnson has embarked upon a radical but controversial Brexit strategy.

We assess the latest developments as the UK moves closer to the 31 October Brexit extension deadline.

What could Boris Johnson’s victory mean for the UK’s gilt and currency markets, and future Brexit strategy?

With financial markets threatening to bounce the Fed into a fresh easing cycle, we give our perspective.

Major demographic shifts will have pronounced implications for economies and investors.

As tariffs are hiked again, where does the US-China trade war go from here?

Modern Monetary Theory is gaining traction among policymakers, but what are the possible consequences for investors and markets?

Political uncertainty could create short-term instability for Spanish bond spreads, but will it last?

A new ‘post-globalisation’ era may have major implications for investors.

With consumer price inflation remaining subdued despite extreme monetary policies, should investors still worry about inflation risk?

What are the investment implications of the World Bank’s key charts of 2018?

Amid another tumultuous week, the outcome of the UK’s Brexit negotiations look even murkier.

The Irish and UK prime ministers are experiencing contrasting fortunes as Brexit negotiations rumble on.

As the bond-market cycle clock ticks on, we offer our outlook for 2019.

We assess the prospects for global equities in 2019

With a decade of financial excess now behind us, the risks appear skewed to the downside.

The UK Prime Minister’s emphatic Brexit vote loss last night raises more Brexit questions than it answers.

Theresa May’s crushing Brexit deal defeat appears relatively meaningless compared to what might happen next.

Our recent conference panel session looked at where markets are heading against an ever-shifting backdrop.

Trade confrontations may dominate the headlines, but deeper structural concerns are driving market movements.

A continuing budget dispute is leading to renewed speculation over an Italian exit from the EU.

Can the US equity market continue its stellar performance into 2019?

Are Turkey’s travails a precursor of worse to come for the global financial system as quantitative tightening starts…

China recently signalled a shift towards short-term economic growth by loosening monetary policy. Will this stimulate global reflation?

How US monetary policy affects different sectors of the bond market at different times.

We evaluate the current inflationary backdrop through the lens of our ‘fire risks’ investment theme.

The technology sector is booming, but memories of the dot-com bubble may leave investors nervous. What’s really going…

With the FIFA World Cup fast approaching, can Russia sustain an economic recovery after its deep recession?

The rise of the middle-class consumer and its implications for investors.

What are the consequences of the increase in short-term contracts and freelance work for inflation and bond markets?

Improvements sparked by the advent of the plough help to inform our view that trade wars produce no…

The eurozone appears to have weathered various crises, but it may not be out of the woods yet.

Analysing the investment landscape against a backdrop of rising interest rates.

A global trade war could fuel rising inflation and renewed volatility.  

Is the close of an ex-rapper’s cannabis venture capital fund a sign that points to the top of…

Why we think this cycle has a significant chance of ending with a bang rather than a whimper.

While many argue against the current economic cycle being a rerun of the last, we beg to differ.

Have we seen an extended cyclical bull market or sustainable secular expansion?

A look at the canine characteristics of the world’s leading central banks.

Why the latest court ruling on Brazil’s former president could spell good news for its economy.

The structural growth story in global Chinese tourism could run for decades.

What lies ahead for global equity markets in 2018?

Where are opportunities for flexible fixed-income investors likely to arise in 2018?

In spite of housing and productivity initiatives, the UK’s Budget was overshadowed by a significant downgrade in growth…

Cautious messaging around the much-anticipated UK rate rise puts the focus squarely on the health of the economy.

How prepared are governments for the ageing of their populations?

Is it time for central banks to disregard CPI as a guide for determining monetary policy?

As central banks start to withdraw liquidity support, can risk assets continue their strong run?

Despite talk of a UK economic slowdown, the picture appears more mixed than outright negative.

Has a long-held central-bank assumption on what triggers inflation become obsolete?

What approach should investors take while awaiting more certainty on monetary policy direction?

High hopes of a President Trump-sponsored injection into global growth have taken a hit.

What could the UK’s hung parliament mean for Brexit and fixed income markets?

Strong markets and data point to confidence in economic recovery, but scratch the surface and a darker picture…

A slowdown in credit is cause for concern for a US economy increasingly dependent on debt for economic…