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Newton Portal
UK Institutional UK Institutional

Blog

macro views

Russia and China: a new world order
Blog

Geopolitical outlook: how ‘great power competition’ will define 2023

How the theme of ‘great power competition’ could shape the macroeconomic backdrop in 2023 and beyond.

Richard Bullock
23 January 2023
Emerging markets & Asia, Fixed income, Global equities, Macro views, Sector research, Ukraine
Charity seminar online series
Blog

Global bond outlook: how far can the rally go?

How far can the bond rally go?

Paul Brain
04 January 2023
Fixed income, Macro views, Sustainable
Asian Equity Income
Blog

Japan: Can the sun rise again?

We reveal our key macro findings from a recent fact-finding trip to Tokyo.

Richard Bullock
01 December 2022
Fixed income, Global equities, Industry views, Macro views, Sector research
Blog

Are gilts still under pressure?

We assess the impact of the UK government’s Autumn Statement on the gilt market.

Carl Shepherd
23 November 2022
Fixed income, Macro views, Multi-asset, Sector research
Retake on Double Take: A UK Winter of Discontent
Blog

Retake on Double Take: A UK Winter of Discontent

In the latest Double Take, we examine the investment implications of the continuing energy crisis enveloping the UK.

Jack Encarnacao, Raphael J. Lewis
25 October 2022
Industry views, Macro views, Sector research
Policy response
Blog

Vladimir Putin: Mr three per cent?

We examine how the Russian leader’s actions have affected the market’s risk premium and what might happen next.

Richard Bullock
21 October 2022
Fixed income, Global equities, Macro views, Sector research, Ukraine
Wristwatch, Coin, Money
Blog

Retake on Double Take: Compliant crypto

We investigate the rapidly evolving world of cryptocurrency compliance as financial institutions plan to expand into digital assets.

Jack Encarnacao, Raphael J. Lewis
20 October 2022
Industry views, Macro views, Sector research
Made in Vietnam?
Blog

Vietnam: Supply-chain superstar

Key (and sometimes surprising) findings from a recent trip to Vietnam.

Richard Bullock
04 October 2022
Emerging markets & Asia, Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research, Themes
Blog

UK mini budget: The closest thing to crazy?

We analyse potential consequences of new UK fiscal and monetary policy for UK bonds and the wider economy.

Howard Cunningham
27 September 2022
Fixed income, Macro views
The power of divergence
Blog

The power of divergence

We analyse how diverging economies can create opportunities for bond investors with a global mindset.

Paul Brain
01 September 2022
Fixed income, Macro views, Themes
Retake on Double Take: The Reshoring Decision
Blog

Retake on Double Take: The reshoring decision

We discuss the macroeconomic factors driving the potential return of manufacturing jobs to the US.

Raphael J. Lewis, Jack Encarnacao
26 July 2022
Industry views, Macro views, Sector research
The end of globalisation as we know it
Blog

The end of globalisation as we know it

Why deglobalisation and supply shortages are leading to greater government intervention.

Simon Nichols
29 June 2022
Macro views, Themes
Spinning on a new inflationary axis
Blog

Spinning on a new inflationary axis

We examine the conditions that have led to increasingly high levels of inflation.

Brendan Mulhern
27 June 2022
Defined contribution, Macro views, Real Return
Global Equities: Navigating a Volatile Backdrop
Blog

Global equities: Navigating a volatile backdrop

We discuss how our global equity specialists are managing the volatility of today’s market landscape.

John R Porter III
06 June 2022
Industry views, Macro views, Sector research
Retake on Double Take: A Nuclear Renaissance?
Blog

Retake on Double Take: A nuclear renaissance?

We discuss the potential of nuclear energy and how it may fit into the global energy transition.

Raphael J. Lewis, Jack Encarnacao
26 May 2022
Industry views, Macro views, Sector research, Sustainable
Blog

Russian bear, Chinese dragon: feasting on honey or playing with fire?

As conflict continues in Ukraine, we assess the potential investment implications arising from evolving Sino-Russian relations.

Richard Bullock
08 April 2022
Fixed income, Global equities, Macro views, Sector research, Ukraine
Server, Computer, Hardware
Blog

Retake on Double Take: Data privacy and regulating big tech

We investigate how big tech companies are mining personal data, and how regulators and lawmakers are responding.

Raphael J. Lewis, Jack Encarnacao
07 April 2022
Industry views, Macro views, Sector research
Ukraine Russia war soldier
Blog

Russian bear: grizzly and exiled

We examine the long-term global structural impacts of the Ukraine war and Russia’s pariah status.

Richard Bullock
21 March 2022
Macro views, Sector research, Ukraine
On the rise…
Blog

On the rise…

We assess what the Fed’s latest monetary-policy signalling could mean for bond markets.

Paul Brain
28 January 2022
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
Deal or no deal?
Blog

Deal or no deal?

We assess Russian President Vladimir Putin’s list of demands over Ukraine and future implications for Europe’s security architecture.

Richard Bullock
20 January 2022
Emerging markets & Asia, Global equities, Macro views, Ukraine
Nature, Outdoors, Night
Blog

Remember, remember, the fourth of November

We assess the impact of a potential rate rise by the Bank of England next week.

Howard Cunningham
29 October 2021
Fixed income, Macro views
A monetary regime change or just a mild bout of inflation?
Blog

Not another financial crisis

Why we believe the post-Covid recovery will be different from the post-financial crisis period.

Brendan Mulhern
14 October 2021
Macro views, Real Return
On the defensive
Blog

On the defensive

With protectionist measures on the increase globally, we discuss some of the opportunities and risks for investors.

Matt Brown
25 May 2021
Macro views, Real Return
Inflationary Fears Overdone?
Blog

Inflationary fears overdone?

We assess the near and mid-term implications of central-bank and government policy for bond markets.

Paul Brain
07 April 2021
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
COVID-19: UK bond market impact
Blog

Going for (green) growth

We assess the implications of the UK Budget for bond markets and the wider economy.

Howard Cunningham
04 March 2021
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
Is the stage set for inflation?
Blog

Is the stage set for inflation?

Will inflation finally re-emerge in a post-pandemic recovery, and how can a balanced portfolio prepare for it?

Aron Pataki
01 February 2021
Macro views, Real Return
State of play
Blog

State of play

As policy intervention ratchets up to new levels in response to Covid-19, what are the implications for investors?

Matt Brown
18 January 2021
Macro views, Real Return, Themes
Gold, Box, Treasure
Blog

Gold: tailwinds?

We discuss the outlook for the precious metal.

Catherine Doyle
14 December 2020
Macro views, Real Return, Sector research
Market melt-up?
Blog

Market melt-up?

Could the US election outcome and hopes of an imminent Covid-19 vaccine keep markets trending upwards?

Brendan Mulhern
12 November 2020
Macro views, Real Return
US election
Blog

Biden: his time

We assess the implications of Joe Biden’s US presidential election victory.

Paul Markham
09 November 2020
Global equities, Macro views
US election
Blog

US election: bond investors shift focus to 2021

We discuss how bond markets have responded to the US election.

Paul Brain
09 November 2020
Fixed income, Macro views
US election
Blog

US election: All eyes on November

With the US election fast approaching, we assess the potential implications for markets.

Paul Markham
30 September 2020
Global equities, Macro views
Blog

Beyond Covid-19: The ‘U-bend’ recovery

Why we believe the post-pandemic economy will take some time to get back to pre-crisis levels.

Paul Brain
20 August 2020
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research, Themes
Blog

European recovery assured?

We assess the ramifications of the European Union’s €750bn deal for EU bond markets and the euro.

Paul Brain
21 July 2020
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
Is volatility here to stay?
Blog

Is volatility here to stay?

We provide our macro outlook for the second half of 2020.

Suzanne Hutchins
10 July 2020
Defined contribution, Macro views, Multi-asset, Real Return
US dollar: devalue to save the world?
Blog

US dollar: devalue to save the world?

We assess how US-dollar strength will affect the global economy as it starts to recover from the pandemic.

Paul Brain
22 May 2020
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
Blog

Looking through the pandemic: The shape of the recovery

We assess some potential consequences of the pandemic, and how they may play out in the global economy.

Paul Brain, Howard Cunningham
11 May 2020
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research, Themes
Blog

Covid-19: The US goes big

We assess the potential impact of an unprecedented US fiscal stimulus package on markets.

Brendan Mulhern
26 March 2020
Global equities, Macro views, Real Return
Covid-19: Looking through the crisis
Blog

Covid-19: Looking through the crisis

We analyse the impact of Covid-19 on global bond markets in anticipation of the next stage.

Paul Brain
19 March 2020
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Coronavirus: Back from the brink?

Coronavirus-induced volatility continues to plague markets, but are there some tentative early signs of recovery?

Brendan Mulhern
09 March 2020
Macro views, Real Return
Going viral
Blog

Going viral

How does the spread of coronavirus affect the global investment outlook?

Brendan Mulhern
07 February 2020
Macro views, Real Return
Staying joined up in a dislocated world
Blog

Staying joined up in a dislocated world

How can pension schemes and asset managers keep up with a disruptive and fast-moving investment backdrop?

Julian Lyne
09 January 2020
Industry views, Macro views
A gilt-edged pledge?
Blog

A gilt-edged pledge?

How the spending pledges from the two main political parties could affect the UK gilts market.

Howard Cunningham
12 December 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
QE 4 to the rescue? Not quite…
Blog

QE 4 to the rescue? Not quite…

Does recent US Federal Reserve activity hint at what lies ahead for US monetary policy?

Brendan Mulhern
09 December 2019
Macro views, Multi-asset, Real Return
Blog

Megacities – where themes collide

Our dynamic thematic framework helps identify structural growth opportunities created by rapid urbanisation.

Newton global research team
21 November 2019
Emerging markets & Asia, Macro views, Newton philosophy, Sector research, Themes
Blog

Prorogue to win or prologue to a loss?

Boris Johnson has embarked upon a radical but controversial Brexit strategy.

Paul Markham
30 August 2019
Global equities, Macro views
Blog

Brexit or Brex-tension?

We assess the latest developments as the UK moves closer to the 31 October Brexit extension deadline.

Paul Markham
19 August 2019
Global equities, Macro views
Blog

Two become one

What could Boris Johnson’s victory mean for the UK’s gilt and currency markets, and future Brexit strategy?

Howard Cunningham
23 July 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Perspective on the pivot

With financial markets threatening to bounce the Fed into a fresh easing cycle, we give our perspective.

Newton Real Return team
17 July 2019
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Population prospects

Major demographic shifts will have pronounced implications for economies and investors.

Newton global research team
12 June 2019
Macro views, Sector research, Themes
Blog

Trade trouble

As tariffs are hiked again, where does the US-China trade war go from here?

Trevor Holder
29 May 2019
Emerging markets & Asia, Fixed income, Macro views, Themes
Blog

The rise and rise of ‘MMT’ economics

Modern Monetary Theory is gaining traction among policymakers, but what are the possible consequences for investors and markets?

Brendan Mulhern
28 May 2019
Macro views, Real Return, Themes
Blog

What now for Spain?

Political uncertainty could create short-term instability for Spanish bond spreads, but will it last?

Paul Brain
01 May 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Populist push
Blog

Populist push

A new ‘post-globalisation’ era may have major implications for investors.

Andy Warwick
25 March 2019
Macro views, Real Return, Themes
Blog

Inflation: the rise and fall

With consumer price inflation remaining subdued despite extreme monetary policies, should investors still worry about inflation risk?

Newton Real Return team
22 March 2019
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Charting the course

What are the investment implications of the World Bank’s key charts of 2018?

Rebecca White
20 March 2019
Macro views, Responsible investment
Blog

Groundhog May

Amid another tumultuous week, the outcome of the UK’s Brexit negotiations look even murkier.

Howard Cunningham
14 March 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Carry on Leo

The Irish and UK prime ministers are experiencing contrasting fortunes as Brexit negotiations rumble on.

Howard Cunningham
11 March 2019
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
Blog

Tick tock

As the bond-market cycle clock ticks on, we offer our outlook for 2019.

Paul Brain
11 February 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Around the world in global equities
Blog

Around the world in global equities

We assess the prospects for global equities in 2019

Paul Markham
08 February 2019
Global equities, Macro views
Blog

A year of two halves?

With a decade of financial excess now behind us, the risks appear skewed to the downside.

Brendan Mulhern
05 February 2019
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Brexit’s May day?

The UK Prime Minister’s emphatic Brexit vote loss last night raises more Brexit questions than it answers.

Paul Markham
16 January 2019
Global equities, Macro views
Blog

You can’t always get (the Brexit) you want…

Theresa May’s crushing Brexit deal defeat appears relatively meaningless compared to what might happen next.

Howard Cunningham
16 January 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Thematic investment
Blog

The investment continuum

Our recent conference panel session looked at where markets are heading against an ever-shifting backdrop.

Julian Lyne
19 December 2018
Macro views, Newton philosophy
Blog

Downward momentum

Trade confrontations may dominate the headlines, but deeper structural concerns are driving market movements.

Brendan Mulhern
10 December 2018
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Is an ‘Italexit’ on the cards?

A continuing budget dispute is leading to renewed speculation over an Italian exit from the EU.

Paul Markham
21 November 2018
Global equities, Macro views
Blog

US decoupling: can it last?

Can the US equity market continue its stellar performance into 2019?

Brendan Mulhern
25 September 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Global equities, Macro views
Blog

Turkey: the canary in the coal mine?

Are Turkey’s travails a precursor of worse to come for the global financial system as quantitative tightening starts…

Brendan Mulhern
29 August 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Macro views
Blog

The big not-so-easy?

China recently signalled a shift towards short-term economic growth by loosening monetary policy. Will this stimulate global reflation?

Brendan Mulhern
16 August 2018
Macro views, Themes
Blog

Time to unwind…

How US monetary policy affects different sectors of the bond market at different times.

Paul Brain
09 August 2018
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Call the fire brigade

We evaluate the current inflationary backdrop through the lens of our ‘fire risks’ investment theme.

Brendan Mulhern
30 May 2018
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Could tech bite twice?

The technology sector is booming, but memories of the dot-com bubble may leave investors nervous. What’s really going…

Paul Markham
24 May 2018
Macro views, Themes
Blog

Russia’s rocky road to reform

With the FIFA World Cup fast approaching, can Russia sustain an economic recovery after its deep recession?

Newton equity opportunities team
22 May 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Macro views
Blog

We’re going to need more avocados

The rise of the middle-class consumer and its implications for investors.

Newton global research team
16 May 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Macro views, Themes
Blog

Tough gig

What are the consequences of the increase in short-term contracts and freelance work for inflation and bond markets?

Paul Brain
14 May 2018
Macro views, Themes
Blog

Planting the seeds of discord

Improvements sparked by the advent of the plough help to inform our view that trade wars produce no…

Brendan Mulhern
10 May 2018
Macro views
Blog

State of the EU-nion

The eurozone appears to have weathered various crises, but it may not be out of the woods yet.

Jon Day
08 May 2018
Macro views
Blog

From ‘doves to hawks’?

Analysing the investment landscape against a backdrop of rising interest rates.

Paul Brain
13 April 2018
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Fanning an inflationary fire

A global trade war could fuel rising inflation and renewed volatility.  

Paul Flood
04 April 2018
Macro views, Multi-asset
Blog

Up in smoke?

Is the close of an ex-rapper’s cannabis venture capital fund a sign that points to the top of…

Brendan Mulhern
26 March 2018
Macro views
Blog

A perspective on returns 3: Boom and bust

Why we think this cycle has a significant chance of ending with a bang rather than a whimper.

Newton Real Return team
20 March 2018
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

A perspective on returns 2: This time it’s different?

While many argue against the current economic cycle being a rerun of the last, we beg to differ.

Newton Real Return team
12 March 2018
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

A perspective on returns 1: Where are we now?

Have we seen an extended cyclical bull market or sustainable secular expansion?

Newton Real Return team
09 March 2018
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Year of the Dog

A look at the canine characteristics of the world’s leading central banks.

Paul Brain
07 February 2018
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
Blog

Silva lining?

Why the latest court ruling on Brazil’s former president could spell good news for its economy.

Carl Shepherd
29 January 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Ready for take-off

The structural growth story in global Chinese tourism could run for decades.

Newton global research team
15 January 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Industry views, Macro views, Sector research
2021: better income outcomes?
Blog

What next for global equities?

What lies ahead for global equity markets in 2018?

Paul Markham
10 January 2018
Global equities, Macro views
Blog

What lies ahead for fixed income?

Where are opportunities for flexible fixed-income investors likely to arise in 2018?

Paul Brain
05 January 2018
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

UK Budget: a lot to be modest about

In spite of housing and productivity initiatives, the UK’s Budget was overshadowed by a significant downgrade in growth…

Howard Cunningham
22 November 2017
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Movember for the MPC

Cautious messaging around the much-anticipated UK rate rise puts the focus squarely on the health of the economy.

Howard Cunningham, Paul Brain
03 November 2017
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Growing old irresponsibly

How prepared are governments for the ageing of their populations?

Newton equity opportunities team
24 October 2017
Macro views
Blog

The Great Deception

Is it time for central banks to disregard CPI as a guide for determining monetary policy?

Brendan Mulhern
20 October 2017
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Draining the punchbowl

As central banks start to withdraw liquidity support, can risk assets continue their strong run?

Brendan Mulhern
20 September 2017
Global equities, Macro views, Real Return
Blog

A mixed bag

Despite talk of a UK economic slowdown, the picture appears more mixed than outright negative.

Howard Cunningham
18 August 2017
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Throwing a curve ball

Has a long-held central-bank assumption on what triggers inflation become obsolete?

Brendan Mulhern
15 August 2017
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Circumventing nomadic bond markets

What approach should investors take while awaiting more certainty on monetary policy direction?

Paul Brain
01 August 2017
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Reflation fade

High hopes of a President Trump-sponsored injection into global growth have taken a hit.

Newton Real Return team
27 July 2017
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Heavy Brexit weather

What could the UK’s hung parliament mean for Brexit and fixed income markets?

Paul Brain, Howard Cunningham
09 June 2017
Macro views
Blog

What lies beneath

Strong markets and data point to confidence in economic recovery, but scratch the surface and a darker picture…

Newton Real Return team
19 April 2017
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Testing the narrative

A slowdown in credit is cause for concern for a US economy increasingly dependent on debt for economic…

Brendan Mulhern
11 April 2017
Macro views
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This is a financial promotion. Issued by Newton Investment Management Limited, The Bank of New York Mellon Centre, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London, EC4V 4LA. Registered in England No. 01371973. Newton Investment Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, 12 Endeavour Square, London, E20 1JN and is a subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. Material in this publication is for general information only. The opinions expressed in this document are those of Newton and should not be construed as investment advice or recommendations for any purchase or sale of any specific security or commodity. Certain information contained herein is based on outside sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. You should consult your advisor to determine whether any particular investment strategy is appropriate. This material is for institutional investors only. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Your capital may be at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the original amount invested.