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Newton Portal
UK Institutional UK Institutional

Insight

fixed income

Megacities medium
Blog

SVB: Breaking the system?

Could we see further financial casualties this year?

Paul Brain
20 March 2023
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research, Themes
Brainwaves episode 4: SVB, monetary policy and the bond markets
Video

Brainwaves episode 4: SVB, monetary policy and the bond markets

Paul Brain considers what the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank means for bond markets.

17 March 2023
Fixed income
Sovereign sustainability
Article

Assessing the sustainability of sovereign bonds

Why we believe our sovereign sustainability process is a key differentiator.

15 March 2023
Fixed income, Sustainable
Brainwaves episode 3: Has the bond market been getting it wrong?
Video

Brainwaves episode 3: Has the bond market been getting it wrong?

Fixed-income head Paul Brain discusses how bond markets can predict the economic cycle.

14 March 2023
Fixed income
Brainwaves Episode 2: The bond outlook from Europe
Video

Brainwaves episode 2: The bond outlook from Europe

Fixed-income leader Paul Brain discusses the outlook for European bond markets.

17 February 2023
Fixed income
Coat, Clothing, Jacket
Video

Brainwaves episode 1: The outlook for bonds in 2023

Fixed-income head Paul Brain explains why he believes this year could be more positive for bonds.

02 February 2023
Fixed income, Macro views
Global Dynamic Bond
Video

Fixed income – quarterly outlook

Trevor Holder explains how inflation, monetary policy and growth dynamics are driving fixed-income markets.

31 January 2023
Fixed income, Macro views
Russia and China: a new world order
Blog

Geopolitical outlook: how ‘great power competition’ will define 2023

How the theme of ‘great power competition’ could shape the macroeconomic backdrop in 2023 and beyond.

Richard Bullock
23 January 2023
Emerging markets & Asia, Fixed income, Global equities, Macro views, Sector research, Ukraine
The journey to net zero in fixed income
Blog

The journey to net zero in fixed income

Bond investors can play a pivotal role in moving the planet to a lower-carbon way of life.

Scott Freedman
04 January 2023
Fixed income, Sustainable
Blog

Global bond outlook: how far can the rally go?

How far can the bond rally go?

Paul Brain
04 January 2023
Fixed income, Macro views, Sustainable
Beyond the boundaries: investment opportunities in a new market regime
Article

Beyond the boundaries: investment opportunities in a new market regime

CEO Euan Munro explores opportunities amid a changing structural backdrop and as market conditions have evolved dramatically.

21 December 2022
Fixed income, Global income, Macro views, Themes
Asian Equity Income
Blog

Japan: Can the sun rise again?

We reveal our key macro findings from a recent fact-finding trip to Tokyo.

Richard Bullock
01 December 2022
Fixed income, Global equities, Industry views, Macro views, Sector research
Blog

Are gilts still under pressure?

We assess the impact of the UK government’s Autumn Statement on the gilt market.

Carl Shepherd
23 November 2022
Fixed income, Macro views, Multi-asset, Sector research
Bank of England
Blog

Second time lucky?

Assessing the UK’s monetary and fiscal predicament.

Howard Cunningham
31 October 2022
Defined contribution, Fixed income, Sector research, Themes
Paul Brain
Video

Fixed income: opportunities in a rising rate environment

Are global bond opportunities starting to appear?

24 October 2022
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
Policy response
Blog

Vladimir Putin: Mr three per cent?

We examine how the Russian leader’s actions have affected the market’s risk premium and what might happen next.

Richard Bullock
21 October 2022
Fixed income, Global equities, Macro views, Sector research, Ukraine
Made in Vietnam?
Blog

Vietnam: Supply-chain superstar

Key (and sometimes surprising) findings from a recent trip to Vietnam.

Richard Bullock
04 October 2022
Emerging markets & Asia, Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research, Themes
Blog

UK mini budget: The closest thing to crazy?

We analyse potential consequences of new UK fiscal and monetary policy for UK bonds and the wider economy.

Howard Cunningham
27 September 2022
Fixed income, Macro views
The power of divergence
Blog

The power of divergence

We analyse how diverging economies can create opportunities for bond investors with a global mindset.

Paul Brain
01 September 2022
Fixed income, Macro views, Themes
Evolution not revolution: how our macro themes evolve
Blog

Evolution not revolution: how our macro themes evolve

How our macro-focused investment themes have evolved to deal with a changing geopolitical and economic backdrop.

Paul Brain
04 August 2022
Emerging markets & Asia, Fixed income, Global equities, Themes
Diverging fortunes: unearthing US bond opportunities
Blog

Diverging fortunes: unearthing US bond opportunities

We examine how the theme of divergence is creating opportunities for global bond investors in the US market.

Paul Brain
07 June 2022
Fixed income, Sector research, Ukraine
Paul Brain
Video

Fixed-income opportunities in a rising rate environment

Paul Brain discusses why US bond markets are offering opportunities not currently available in European markets.

20 May 2022
Fixed income, Sector research
Investment matters: Russia, China and the new world order
Audio

Russia, China and the new world order

How the Ukraine conflict could change the geopolitical and investment landscape.

19 May 2022
Emerging markets & Asia, Fixed income, Global equities, Macro views, Sector research, Ukraine
Fixed-income solutions for a challenging market backdrop
Article

Fixed-income solutions for a challenging investment backdrop

Using fixed income to help navigate a rising interest-rate environment.

16 May 2022
Defined contribution, Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Russian bear, Chinese dragon: feasting on honey or playing with fire?

As conflict continues in Ukraine, we assess the potential investment implications arising from evolving Sino-Russian relations.

Richard Bullock
08 April 2022
Fixed income, Global equities, Macro views, Sector research, Ukraine
Sustainable bonds: a year of regulatory growth?
Blog

Sustainable bonds: a year of regulatory growth?

We highlight some trends that we believe will influence the sustainable fixed-income market in 2022.

Scott Freedman
16 March 2022
Fixed income, Responsible investment, Sustainable
Russian bear out in the cold
Blog

Russian bear out in the cold

We assess the possible investment implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Richard Bullock
25 February 2022
Fixed income, Sector research, Ukraine
On the rise…
Blog

On the rise…

We assess what the Fed’s latest monetary-policy signalling could mean for bond markets.

Paul Brain
28 January 2022
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
Symbol, Road Sign, Sign
Blog

Inflation: stick or twist?

We assess central banks’ latest strategies on interest rates as near-term inflation continues to rise.

Paul Brain
29 November 2021
Fixed income
Nature, Outdoors, Night
Blog

Remember, remember, the fourth of November

We assess the impact of a potential rate rise by the Bank of England next week.

Howard Cunningham
29 October 2021
Fixed income, Macro views
Insights
Blog

Time for taper tantrum II?

We assess the mood in bond markets as central banks once again start to focus on tapering quantitative-easing…

Paul Brain
17 September 2021
Fixed income, Themes
Something strange in bond markets
Blog

Something strange in bond markets…

We assess the drivers behind unusual recent moves in global bond markets and consider what may happen next.

Paul Brain
28 July 2021
Fixed income
From niche to mainstream
Blog

From niche to mainstream

How sustainable fixed-income investing is growing in prominence, and why an active approach makes sense.

Catherine Doyle
29 June 2021
Fixed income, Responsible investment, Sustainable
Investment Matters - Episode 10
Audio

Bonds: Spotlight on sustainable fixed income

Where are the best opportunities for sustainable-bond investors?

21 April 2021
Fixed income, Sector research, Sustainable
Inflationary Fears Overdone?
Blog

Inflationary fears overdone?

We assess the near and mid-term implications of central-bank and government policy for bond markets.

Paul Brain
07 April 2021
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
Investment Matters - Podcast
Audio

Bonds: tackling inflation and finding value in fixed-income markets

Bond markets have endured a tough year. We discuss the inflation threat and where to find best value.

07 April 2021
Fixed income, Macro views
COVID-19: UK bond market impact
Blog

Going for (green) growth

We assess the implications of the UK Budget for bond markets and the wider economy.

Howard Cunningham
04 March 2021
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
Growing the sustainable pie the right way
Blog

Growing the sustainable pie the right way

Key trends that will help to shape the growth of the sustainable fixed-income market in 2021 and beyond.

Scott Freedman
11 January 2021
Fixed income, Responsible investment, Sustainable
Fast forward: A journey to the future of investment
Blog

Finding opportunities in a world of vanishing interest rates

How a multi-asset credit approach could help investors seeking better yields and diversification.

Paul Brain
16 December 2020
Fixed income
US election
Blog

US election: bond investors shift focus to 2021

We discuss how bond markets have responded to the US election.

Paul Brain
09 November 2020
Fixed income, Macro views
Navigating the debt mountain
Blog

Navigating the debt mountain

As the global pandemic fallout continues, we assess the relative merits of developed and emerging-market debt.

Trevor Holder
03 November 2020
Emerging markets & Asia, Fixed income
Beyond the pandemic - Podcast
Audio

Beyond the pandemic: the bonds perspective: Part II

The outlook for inflation, and a focus on sustainable fixed-incoming investing.

27 October 2020
Fixed income, Macro views, Responsible investment, Sector research, Sustainable
Investment Matters - Podcast
Audio

Beyond the pandemic: the bonds perspective

How the monetary and fiscal response to Covid-19 is reshaping bond markets.

21 October 2020
Fixed income, Macro views, Responsible investment, Sector research, Sustainable
Blog

Beyond Covid-19: The ‘U-bend’ recovery

Why we believe the post-pandemic economy will take some time to get back to pre-crisis levels.

Paul Brain
20 August 2020
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research, Themes
Doing the right thing: ESG and EMD
Blog

Doing the right thing: ESG and EMD

We analyse the importance of sound governance and disciplined ESG analysis when selecting emerging-market government bonds.

Carl Shepherd, Trevor Holder
27 July 2020
Emerging markets & Asia, Fixed income, Responsible investment, Sector research
Blog

European recovery assured?

We assess the ramifications of the European Union’s €750bn deal for EU bond markets and the euro.

Paul Brain
21 July 2020
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
Blog

Is investment grade nearing the ‘danger zone’?

We assess two potential tail-risk scenarios from the pandemic that could hurt investment-grade bond investors.

Howard Cunningham
26 June 2020
Fixed income, Sector research
US dollar: devalue to save the world?
Blog

US dollar: devalue to save the world?

We assess how US-dollar strength will affect the global economy as it starts to recover from the pandemic.

Paul Brain
22 May 2020
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
Blog

Looking through the pandemic: The shape of the recovery

We assess some potential consequences of the pandemic, and how they may play out in the global economy.

Paul Brain, Howard Cunningham
11 May 2020
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research, Themes
The rise and rise of ‘MMT’ economics
Blog

Save and prosper?

How the pandemic and rescue packages are changing both corporate behaviour and the dynamics of fixed-income markets.

Howard Cunningham, Paul Brain
20 April 2020
Fixed income, Sector research
Covid-19: BoE: ‘take back control’
Blog

Covid-19: BoE: ‘take back control’

We assess the impact of the Bank of England’s latest efforts to calm febrile markets.

Howard Cunningham
20 March 2020
Fixed income, Sector research
Covid-19: ECB’s ‘shock and awe’
Blog

Covid-19: ECB’s ‘shock and awe’

We assess what the European Central Bank’s latest financial rescue package means for European bond markets.

Jon Day
20 March 2020
Fixed income, Sector research
Covid-19: Looking through the crisis
Blog

Covid-19: Looking through the crisis

We analyse the impact of Covid-19 on global bond markets in anticipation of the next stage.

Paul Brain
19 March 2020
Fixed income, Macro views
COVID-19: UK bond market impact
Blog

Covid-19: UK bond market impact

We analyse the impact of the UK government’s financial rescue package on bond markets

Howard Cunningham
18 March 2020
Fixed income, Sector research
Learning to love low yields
Blog

Learning to love low yields

Despite yields plunging following the Fed’s coronavirus-motivated rate cut, we believe opportunities still exist in bond markets.

Jon Day
11 March 2020
Fixed income
A gilt-edged pledge?
Blog

A gilt-edged pledge?

How the spending pledges from the two main political parties could affect the UK gilts market.

Howard Cunningham
12 December 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Latin American spring?
Blog

Latin American spring?

As street protests spread across the region, is Latin America approaching a tipping point?

Carl Shepherd
05 December 2019
Emerging markets & Asia, Fixed income
The pain in Spain
Blog

The pain in Spain

As the political deadlock looks set to continue in Spain, we assess the impact on debt markets.

Paul Brain
11 November 2019
Fixed income
Which way now?
Blog

Which way now?

A further Brexit delay and an unpredictable election spell further near-term uncertainty for the UK economy.

Howard Cunningham
06 November 2019
Fixed income, Sector research
Blog

Russian roulette

As Brexit uncertainty drags on, we assess the potential future consequences for the UK’s debt markets.

Howard Cunningham
10 October 2019
Fixed income
Blog

Two become one

What could Boris Johnson’s victory mean for the UK’s gilt and currency markets, and future Brexit strategy?

Howard Cunningham
23 July 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Party like it’s Norway (or not)

The global liquidity party remains very much in evidence, despite the Norwegian central bank’s latest rate hike.

Jon Day
21 June 2019
Fixed income, Themes
Blog

Sovereign scruples

What are the ESG risks surrounding sovereign bonds?

Trevor Holder
19 June 2019
Fixed income, Responsible investment
Waiting for BoJo
Blog

Waiting for BoJo

How is the UK’s Brexit waiting game playing out in the bond markets?

Howard Cunningham
05 June 2019
Fixed income
Blog

Trade trouble

As tariffs are hiked again, where does the US-China trade war go from here?

Trevor Holder
29 May 2019
Emerging markets & Asia, Fixed income, Macro views, Themes
Blog

What now for Spain?

Political uncertainty could create short-term instability for Spanish bond spreads, but will it last?

Paul Brain
01 May 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Groundhog May

Amid another tumultuous week, the outcome of the UK’s Brexit negotiations look even murkier.

Howard Cunningham
14 March 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Carry on Leo

The Irish and UK prime ministers are experiencing contrasting fortunes as Brexit negotiations rumble on.

Howard Cunningham
11 March 2019
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
Blog

Driving us Caracas

Venezuela’s president and opposition leader are deepening a political crisis that could hold major implications for global markets.

Carl Shepherd
19 February 2019
Emerging markets & Asia, Fixed income, Sector research
Blog

Tick tock

As the bond-market cycle clock ticks on, we offer our outlook for 2019.

Paul Brain
11 February 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

You can’t always get (the Brexit) you want…

Theresa May’s crushing Brexit deal defeat appears relatively meaningless compared to what might happen next.

Howard Cunningham
16 January 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Not EU again

Theresa May has survived for now, but will the EU budge from the deal on the table?

Howard Cunningham
13 December 2018
Fixed income
Blog

Awaiting the endgame

At our investment conference, we discussed the stress indicators that could herald the next market stage for bonds.

Paul Brain
30 November 2018
Fixed income
Blog

Time to unwind…

How US monetary policy affects different sectors of the bond market at different times.

Paul Brain
09 August 2018
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Starting to bite?

What are the potential consequences of China/US trade friction for emerging and developed markets?

Trevor Holder
17 July 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Fixed income, Sector research
Blog

Navigating troubled waters

How can investors seek to engineer a return in today’s bond markets?

Paul Brain
22 June 2018
Fixed income
Blog

Italian bonds in a bind?

Italy’s current political uncertainty could put its heavily bought bond market and the eurozone under further pressure.

Paul Brain, Jon Day
04 June 2018
Fixed income
Blog

Time to be peso-mistic?

With Argentina raising interest rates to 40% to defend its rapidly falling currency, what does the future hold?

Carl Shepherd
18 May 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Fixed income
Blog

From ‘doves to hawks’?

Analysing the investment landscape against a backdrop of rising interest rates.

Paul Brain
13 April 2018
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Rewriting the rules

How can multi-asset investors manage a changing relationship between bond and equity markets?

Paul Flood
28 February 2018
Fixed income, Global equities, Multi-asset
Blog

Year of the Dog

A look at the canine characteristics of the world’s leading central banks.

Paul Brain
07 February 2018
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
Blog

Silva lining?

Why the latest court ruling on Brazil’s former president could spell good news for its economy.

Carl Shepherd
29 January 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

UK gilt yields: the long and short of it

A funny thing happened on the way from the referendum…

Howard Cunningham
22 January 2018
Fixed income
Blog

What lies ahead for fixed income?

Where are opportunities for flexible fixed-income investors likely to arise in 2018?

Paul Brain
05 January 2018
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

UK Budget: a lot to be modest about

In spite of housing and productivity initiatives, the UK’s Budget was overshadowed by a significant downgrade in growth…

Howard Cunningham
22 November 2017
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Turning point

After a strong run, is the high-yield bond market due a more serious setback?

Paul Brain
16 November 2017
Fixed income
Blog

An issue of strength

Last week’s $2bn bond issuance by China coincided with the 19th Party Congress.

Trevor Holder
03 November 2017
Fixed income
Blog

Movember for the MPC

Cautious messaging around the much-anticipated UK rate rise puts the focus squarely on the health of the economy.

Howard Cunningham, Paul Brain
03 November 2017
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Dancing to a Brazilian beat

Are reasons for optimism emerging in Brazil’s sovereign debt markets?

Carl Shepherd
27 October 2017
Fixed income
Blog

Putting a cap on it

Despite a shift in policy, a peak in rates may not be too far away.

Paul Brain
05 September 2017
Fixed income
Blog

Much ado about nothing

Investment-grade debt has been bolstered by central-bank support, but we see little to get excited about.

Paul Flood
23 August 2017
Fixed income, Multi-asset
Blog

A mixed bag

Despite talk of a UK economic slowdown, the picture appears more mixed than outright negative.

Howard Cunningham
18 August 2017
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Ghoul’s gold: China’s ghost towns

Why investors should beware of China’s haunted property market.

Parmeshwar Chadha
08 August 2017
Fixed income
Blog

Circumventing nomadic bond markets

What approach should investors take while awaiting more certainty on monetary policy direction?

Paul Brain
01 August 2017
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

At the heart of the process

Sovereign and corporate ESG credentials can be significant factors in shaping our fixed-income investment decisions

,
21 July 2017
Fixed income
Blog

Gilt trip

A week is a long time in politics, and in the gilt market...

Howard Cunningham
22 June 2017
Fixed income
Blog

An attack on real wealth

Rising inflation and currency weakness may combine to dampen the prospects for gilts over the medium term.

Paul Flood
16 June 2017
Fixed income, Multi-asset
Blog

When to leave the party

Timing the turn is never easy, but you don’t want to be left ‘dancing near the door’.

,
18 May 2017
Fixed income
Blog

Diverging prospects

How our investment themes help us identify opportunities and risks in changing bond markets.

,
26 April 2017
Fixed income
Blog

Spreading negative energy

Continuing weakness in the oil price is having a big impact on credit spreads in the energy sector.

Parmeshwar Chadha
03 April 2017
Fixed income
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This is a financial promotion. Issued by Newton Investment Management Limited, The Bank of New York Mellon Centre, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London, EC4V 4LA. Registered in England No. 01371973. Newton Investment Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, 12 Endeavour Square, London, E20 1JN and is a subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. Material in this publication is for general information only. The opinions expressed in this document are those of Newton and should not be construed as investment advice or recommendations for any purchase or sale of any specific security or commodity. Certain information contained herein is based on outside sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. You should consult your advisor to determine whether any particular investment strategy is appropriate. This material is for institutional investors only. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Your capital may be at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the original amount invested.