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Newton Investment Management

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Newton Portal
UK Institutional UK Institutional

Insight

macro views

Blog

Megacities – where themes collide

Our dynamic thematic framework helps identify structural growth opportunities created by rapid urbanisation.

Ed Geall
21 November 2019
Emerging markets & Asia, Macro views, Newton philosophy, Sector research
2019 Investment conference
Blog

Cutting through the noise

How can investors thrive in a world defined by disruption?

Charles French
04 November 2019
Macro views, Newton philosophy
Real Return
Article

Investment thoughts from our Real Return team

Our Real Return team considers the investment backdrop.

21 October 2019
Macro views, Real Return
Investment comment - Oct 2019
Article

Investment comment - October 2019

While the world celebrated the anniversary of the first manned Moon landing, investors couldn’t make a giant leap.

09 October 2019
Macro views
Blog

Prorogue to win or prologue to a loss?

Boris Johnson has embarked upon a radical but controversial Brexit strategy.

Paul Markham
30 August 2019
Global equities, Macro views
Blog

Brexit or Brex-tension?

We assess the latest developments as the UK moves closer to the 31 October Brexit extension deadline.

Paul Markham
19 August 2019
Global equities, Macro views
Blog

Two become one

What could Boris Johnson’s victory mean for the UK’s gilt and currency markets, and future Brexit strategy?

Howard Cunningham
23 July 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Perspective on the pivot

With financial markets threatening to bounce the Fed into a fresh easing cycle, we give our perspective.

Newton Real Return team
17 July 2019
Macro views, Real Return
Investment comment - July 2019
Article

Investment comment – July 2019

Scientists have revealed the first image of a black hole. The gravitational forces of policymaking have reasserted themselves.

09 July 2019
Industry views, Macro views
Investment thoughts from our Real Return team
Article

Investment thoughts from our Real Return team

Our Real Return team considers the investment backdrop.

09 July 2019
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Population prospects

Major demographic shifts will have pronounced implications for economies and investors.

Ed Geall
12 June 2019
Macro views, Sector research
Blog

Trade trouble

As tariffs are hiked again, where does the US-China trade war go from here?

Trevor Holder
29 May 2019
Emerging markets & Asia, Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

The rise and rise of ‘MMT’ economics

Modern Monetary Theory is gaining traction among policymakers, but what are the possible consequences for investors and markets?

Brendan Mulhern
28 May 2019
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

What now for Spain?

Political uncertainty could create short-term instability for Spanish bond spreads, but will it last?

Paul Brain
01 May 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Investment comment - Apr 2019
Article

Investment comment – April 2019

There was a sense of ‘mixed reality’ during the opening months of the year.

09 April 2019
Macro views
Populist push
Blog

Populist push

A new ‘post-globalisation’ era may have major implications for investors.

Andy Warwick
25 March 2019
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Inflation: the rise and fall

With consumer price inflation remaining subdued despite extreme monetary policies, should investors still worry about inflation risk?

Newton Real Return team
22 March 2019
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Charting the course

What are the investment implications of the World Bank’s key charts of 2018?

Rebecca White
20 March 2019
Macro views, Responsible investment
Blog

Groundhog May

Amid another tumultuous week, the outcome of the UK’s Brexit negotiations look even murkier.

Howard Cunningham
14 March 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Carry on Leo

The Irish and UK prime ministers are experiencing contrasting fortunes as Brexit negotiations rumble on.

Howard Cunningham
11 March 2019
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
Blog

Tick tock

As the bond-market cycle clock ticks on, we offer our outlook for 2019.

Paul Brain
11 February 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Around the world in global equities
Blog

Around the world in global equities

We assess the prospects for global equities in 2019

Paul Markham
08 February 2019
Global equities, Macro views
Blog

A year of two halves?

With a decade of financial excess now behind us, the risks appear skewed to the downside.

Brendan Mulhern
05 February 2019
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Brexit’s May day?

The UK Prime Minister’s emphatic Brexit vote loss last night raises more Brexit questions than it answers.

Paul Markham
16 January 2019
Global equities, Macro views
Blog

You can’t always get (the Brexit) you want…

Theresa May’s crushing Brexit deal defeat appears relatively meaningless compared to what might happen next.

Howard Cunningham
16 January 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Investment Comment - Jan 2019
Article

Investment comment – January 2019

President Trump blamed the Fed for investors’ loss of confidence. Perhaps he felt the influence of Kanye West.

10 January 2019
Macro views
Blog

The investment continuum

Our recent conference panel session looked at where markets are heading against an ever-shifting backdrop.

Julian Lyne
19 December 2018
Macro views, Newton philosophy
Blog

Downward momentum

Trade confrontations may dominate the headlines, but deeper structural concerns are driving market movements.

Brendan Mulhern
10 December 2018
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Is an ‘Italexit’ on the cards?

A continuing budget dispute is leading to renewed speculation over an Italian exit from the EU.

Paul Markham
21 November 2018
Global equities, Macro views
Blog

US decoupling: can it last?

Can the US equity market continue its stellar performance into 2019?

Brendan Mulhern
25 September 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Global equities, Macro views
Blog

Turkey: the canary in the coal mine?

Are Turkey’s travails a precursor of worse to come for the global financial system as quantitative tightening starts…

Brendan Mulhern
29 August 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Macro views
Blog

Age of the aged

With populations ageing all over the world, economies are shifting rapidly. What should you know as an investor?

Emma Mogford
23 August 2018
Macro views, Sector research
Blog

The big not-so-easy?

China recently signalled a shift towards short-term economic growth by loosening monetary policy. Will this stimulate global reflation?

Brendan Mulhern
16 August 2018
Macro views
Blog

Time to unwind…

How US monetary policy affects different sectors of the bond market at different times.

Paul Brain
09 August 2018
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Call the fire brigade

We evaluate the current inflationary backdrop through the lens of our ‘fire risks’ investment theme.

Iain Stewart, Brendan Mulhern
30 May 2018
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Could tech bite twice?

The technology sector is booming, but memories of the dot-com bubble may leave investors nervous. What’s really going…

Paul Markham
24 May 2018
Macro views
Blog

Russia’s rocky road to reform

With the FIFA World Cup fast approaching, can Russia sustain an economic recovery after its deep recession?

Naomi Waistell
22 May 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Macro views
Blog

We’re going to need more avocados

The rise of the middle-class consumer and its implications for investors.

Emma Mogford
16 May 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Macro views
Blog

Tough gig

What are the consequences of the increase in short-term contracts and freelance work for inflation and bond markets?

Paul Brain
14 May 2018
Macro views
Blog

Planting the seeds of discord

Improvements sparked by the advent of the plough help to inform our view that trade wars produce no…

Brendan Mulhern
10 May 2018
Macro views
Blog

State of the EU-nion

The eurozone appears to have weathered various crises, but it may not be out of the woods yet.

Jon Day
08 May 2018
Macro views
Blog

Sisters are doing it for themselves – and the economy

Why improving gender equality has a host of potential macroeconomic benefits.

Lottie Meggitt
30 April 2018
Macro views
Blog

From ‘doves to hawks’?

Analysing the investment landscape against a backdrop of rising interest rates.

Paul Brain
13 April 2018
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Fanning an inflationary fire

A global trade war could fuel rising inflation and renewed volatility.  

Paul Flood
04 April 2018
Macro views, Multi-asset
Blog

Up in smoke?

Is the close of an ex-rapper’s cannabis venture capital fund a sign that points to the top of…

Brendan Mulhern
26 March 2018
Macro views
Blog

A perspective on returns 3: Boom and bust

Why we think this cycle has a significant chance of ending with a bang rather than a whimper.

Iain Stewart
20 March 2018
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

A perspective on returns 2: This time it’s different?

While many argue against the current economic cycle being a rerun of the last, we beg to differ.

Iain Stewart
12 March 2018
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

A perspective on returns 1: Where are we now?

Have we seen an extended cyclical bull market or sustainable secular expansion?

Iain Stewart
09 March 2018
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Populist triumph?

With Italy’s election result highlighting growing political and economic divergence, Europe’s growth outlook remains challenging.

Emma Mogford
07 March 2018
Macro views
Blog

Year of the Dog

A look at the canine characteristics of the world’s leading central banks.

Paul Brain
07 February 2018
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
Blog

Silva lining?

Why the latest court ruling on Brazil’s former president could spell good news for its economy.

Carl Shepherd
29 January 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Ready for take-off

The structural growth story in global Chinese tourism could run for decades.

Newton global research team
15 January 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Industry views, Macro views, Sector research
Blog

What next for global equities?

What lies ahead for global equity markets in 2018?

Paul Markham
10 January 2018
Global equities, Macro views
Blog

What lies ahead for fixed income?

Where are opportunities for flexible fixed-income investors likely to arise in 2018?

Paul Brain
05 January 2018
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

UK Budget: a lot to be modest about

In spite of housing and productivity initiatives, the UK’s Budget was overshadowed by a significant downgrade in growth…

Howard Cunningham
22 November 2017
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Movember for the MPC

Cautious messaging around the much-anticipated UK rate rise puts the focus squarely on the health of the economy.

Howard Cunningham, Paul Brain
03 November 2017
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Growing old irresponsibly

How prepared are governments for the ageing of their populations?

Newton equity opportunities team
24 October 2017
Macro views
Blog

The Great Deception

Is it time for central banks to disregard CPI as a guide for determining monetary policy?

Brendan Mulhern
20 October 2017
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Draining the punchbowl

As central banks start to withdraw liquidity support, can risk assets continue their strong run?

Brendan Mulhern
20 September 2017
Global equities, Macro views, Real Return
Blog

A mixed bag

Despite talk of a UK economic slowdown, the picture appears more mixed than outright negative.

Howard Cunningham
18 August 2017
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Throwing a curve ball

Has a long-held central-bank assumption on what triggers inflation become obsolete?

Brendan Mulhern
15 August 2017
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Circumventing nomadic bond markets

What approach should investors take while awaiting more certainty on monetary policy direction?

Paul Brain
01 August 2017
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Reflation fade

High hopes of a President Trump-sponsored injection into global growth have taken a hit.

Iain Stewart
27 July 2017
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Heavy Brexit weather

What could the UK’s hung parliament mean for Brexit and fixed income markets?

Paul Brain
09 June 2017
Macro views
Blog

What lies beneath

Strong markets and data point to confidence in economic recovery, but scratch the surface and a darker picture…

Iain Stewart
19 April 2017
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Testing the narrative

A slowdown in credit is cause for concern for a US economy increasingly dependent on debt for economic…

Brendan Mulhern
11 April 2017
Macro views
Blog

Seconds out…for Brexit

There is much at stake for the UK and EU as Theresa May rings the starting bell for…

Howard Cunningham
29 March 2017
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Plotting the populist vote

How income inequality could be a guide to future political risk.

Jon Day
23 March 2017
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Dutch courage

EU leaders will view the Dutch election result with relief, but the bloc’s future success remains far from…

Paul Markham
16 March 2017
Macro views
Blog

Read between the lines

Are many of the recent positive US economic indicators based more on expectations than reality?

Brendan Mulhern
09 March 2017
Macro views
Blog

The great inflation hunt

Despite a growing belief that sustained global inflation may be on the cards, hurdles still remain.

Brendan Mulhern
17 February 2017
Macro views
Blog

Trump – the new Reagan?

Many investors appear to believe Donald Trump can deliver a Reagan-like reform agenda, but change will not be…

Newton Real Return team
03 February 2017
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Breaking their banks

The pressure continues to pile up on Italy's banking sector.

Brendan Mulhern
07 December 2016
Macro views, Sector research
Blog

Heads together: in pictures

15 snapshots of our 2016 investment conference

Julian Lyne
29 November 2016
Macro views, Real Return, Sector research
Blog

The billionaire Robin Hood

While Trump’s election campaign championed the working poor, his election might have big implications for globalisation and investors.

Brendan Mulhern
14 November 2016
Macro views
Blog

Global warning

There are growing political and economic signs that the latest period of international cooperation is starting to unravel.

Brendan Mulhern
31 October 2016
Macro views
Blog

Rate expectations

Second-guessing the next US administration’s policies is tough, but bond investors can take some precautions.

Paul Brain
17 October 2016
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Slack magic

Why ‘2’ may not hold the magical properties central bankers believe it does.

Newton Real Return team
05 October 2016
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Ever-changing moods...

The market’s addiction to monetary stimulus is growing, while the capabilities of central bankers are being stretched to…

Paul Brain
23 September 2016
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

End of the road?

There are signs that the monetary policy regime of the last 30 years could be nearing its conclusion.

Brendan Mulhern
19 September 2016
Macro views
Blog

More trouble than it’s worth

Could the scale of US household wealth leave investors vulnerable?

Newton Real Return team
14 September 2016
Macro views
Blog

Working up a debt

Despite the palliative of loose monetary policy, the challenges of the global debt burden remain.

Newton Real Return team
03 August 2016
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Let’s get fiscal

Politicians may well turn to fiscal stimulus – financed by central banks – to fight economic weakness.

Brendan Mulhern
29 July 2016
Macro views
Blog

Warning! Yield gap reversing (again)!

What would a permanent return to a positive equity/bond yield gap mean for investors?

Newton Real Return team
26 July 2016
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Mind the gap

The seismic shift in the UK political landscape offers valuable insight into what is driving fragmentation globally.

Brendan Mulhern
01 July 2016
Macro views
Blog

Cutting the FTSE down to size

Looking past the headlines at the effect of the EU referendum on equity markets.

Newton Real Return team
30 June 2016
Macro views, Real Return, UK equities
Blog

Brexit implications

The UK’s vote to leave the EU merely adds to the importance of careful investment.

Newton Real Return team
24 June 2016
Macro views
Blog

Not-so-great expectations

The latest Federal Reserve announcement brings a sense of déjà vu for our resident strategist.

Brendan Mulhern
17 June 2016
Macro views
Blog

Labour pains

Deteriorating US labour-market data proves uncomfortable for policymakers pushing for a rate rise.

Brendan Mulhern
13 June 2016
Macro views
Blog

A re-vaulting idea

More evidence in the eurozone and Japan that the response to unconventional monetary policies isn't going to plan.

Newton Real Return team
09 June 2016
Macro views
Blog

Out of left yield

The idea that borrowing costs should, in the long run, match the growth rate of GDP could be…

Newton Real Return team
08 June 2016
Macro views
Blog

Zero tolerance

Contrary to central-bank dogma, negative interest rates may well lead to a sustained tightening of financial conditions.

Brendan Mulhern
06 June 2016
Macro views
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This is a financial promotion. Issued in the UK by Newton Investment Management Limited, The Bank of New York Mellon Centre, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London, EC4V 4LA. Registered in England No. 01371973. Newton Investment Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The opinions expressed in this document are those of Newton and should not be construed as investment advice. This document is for UK professional investors only. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Your capital may be at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the original amount invested.