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US Institutional US Institutional

Blog

macro views

Is China ‘uninvestible’?
Blog

Emerging-market equities: Finally Time to Shine?

After a prolonged period of relative underperformance, could emerging-market equities be set for a renaissance?

Ian Smith
January 27, 2023
Emerging markets & Asia, Macro views, Sustainable, Themes
Charity seminar online series
Blog

Global Bond Outlook: How Far Can the Rally Go?

We analyze the prospects for bond markets in 2023.

Paul Brain
January 6, 2023
Fixed income, Macro views, Themes
London
Blog

Second Time Lucky?

We assess the prospects for UK government bonds

Howard Cunningham
November 1, 2022
Defined contribution, Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
Retake on Double Take: A UK Winter of Discontent
Blog

Retake on Double Take: A UK Winter of Discontent

In the latest Double Take, we examine the investment implications of the continuing energy crisis enveloping the UK.

Jack Encarnacao, Raphael J. Lewis
October 25, 2022
Industry views, Macro views, Sector research
Policy response
Blog

Vladimir Putin: Mr. Three Per Cent?

We examine how the Russian leader’s actions have affected the market’s risk premium and what might happen next.

Richard Bullock
October 24, 2022
Emerging markets & Asia, Fixed income, Global equities, Macro views, Ukraine
Blog

UK Mini Budget: The Closest Thing to Crazy?

We analyze potential consequences of new UK fiscal and monetary policy for UK bonds and the wider economy.

Howard Cunningham
September 28, 2022
Fixed income, Macro views
Wristwatch, Coin, Money
Blog

Retake on Double Take: Compliant Crypto

We investigate the rapidly evolving world of cryptocurrency compliance as financial institutions plan to expand into digital assets.

Jack Encarnacao, Raphael J. Lewis
September 27, 2022
Industry views, Macro views, Sector research
Retake on Double Take: Cannabis Highs and Lows
Blog

Retake on Double Take: Cannabis Highs and Lows

As the US legal landscape evolves, we explore the many opportunities and unique challenges of selling marijuana products.

Raphael J. Lewis, Jack Encarnacao
September 22, 2022
Industry views, Macro views, Sector research
The power of divergence
Blog

The Power of Divergence

We analyze how diverging economies can create opportunities for bond investors with a global mindset.

Paul Brain
September 1, 2022
Fixed income, Macro views, Themes
Office Building, Building, High Rise
Blog

Retake on Double Take: Equity and Inclusion

Why the integration and disclosure of people with disabilities in workplaces displays good values and is economically practical.

Raphael J. Lewis, Jack Encarnacao
August 23, 2022
Industry views, Macro views, Sector research
Person, Human, Rug
Blog

Retake on Double Take: Diversity and Human Capital

We discuss the evolving state of diversity, human capital management, and disclosure at public companies.

Raphael J. Lewis, Jack Encarnacao
August 19, 2022
Industry views, Macro views, Sector research
The end of globalisation as we know it
Blog

The End of Globalization as We Know It

Why deglobalization and supply shortages are leading to greater government intervention.

Simon Nichols
July 8, 2022
Macro views, Themes
Retake on Double Take: The Reshoring Decision
Blog

Retake on Double Take: The Reshoring Decision

We investigate the trend of deglobalization and explore why some manufacturers are bringing operations back home.

Raphael J. Lewis, Jack Encarnacao
June 30, 2022
Industry views, Macro views, Sector research
Spinning on a new inflationary axis
Blog

Spinning on a New Inflationary Axis

We examine the conditions that have led to increasingly high levels of inflation.

Brendan Mulhern
June 30, 2022
Macro views, Real Return
Diverging fortunes: unearthing US bond opportunities
Blog

Diverging Fortunes: Unearthing US Bond Opportunities

We examine how the theme of divergence is creating opportunities for global bond investors in the US market.

Paul Brain
June 7, 2022
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research, Themes, Ukraine
Global Equities: Navigating a Volatile Backdrop
Blog

Global Equities: Navigating a Volatile Backdrop

We discuss how our global equity specialists are managing the volatility of today’s market landscape.

John R Porter III
June 6, 2022
Industry views, Macro views, Sector research
Retake on Double Take: A Nuclear Renaissance?
Blog

Retake on Double Take: A Nuclear Renaissance?

We discuss the potential of nuclear energy and how it may fit into the global energy transition.

Raphael J. Lewis, Jack Encarnacao
May 26, 2022
Industry views, Macro views, Sector research, Sustainable
Blog

Unpacking the Great Gold Performance of the 1970s

Empirical evidence shows gold may not be a reliable inflation hedge.

Roberto M Croce
May 17, 2022
Macro views
Server, Computer, Hardware
Blog

Retake on Double Take: Data Privacy and Regulating Big Tech

We investigate how big tech companies are mining personal data, and how regulators and lawmakers are responding.

Raphael J. Lewis, Jack Encarnacao
April 4, 2022
Industry views, Macro views, Sector research
Ukraine Russia war soldier
Blog

Russian Bear: Exiled and Grizzly

We examine the long-term global structural impacts of the Ukraine war and Russia’s pariah status.

Richard Bullock
March 23, 2022
Emerging markets & Asia, Fixed income, Global equities, Macro views, Ukraine
Inflation Hedging in Strategic Asset Allocations: Gold or Something Else?
Blog

Inflation Hedging: Gold or Something Else?

Conventional wisdom says that traditional stock and bond investments typically perform poorly during inflation episodes.

Roberto M Croce
March 16, 2022
Macro views
Russian bear out in the cold
Blog

Russian Bear Out in the Cold

We assess the possible investment implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Richard Bullock
March 3, 2022
Fixed income, Global equities, Macro views, Sector research, Ukraine
On the rise…
Blog

On the Rise…

We assess what the Fed’s latest monetary-policy signaling could mean for bond markets.

Paul Brain
January 28, 2022
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
A monetary regime change or just a mild bout of inflation?
Blog

Not Another Financial Crisis

Why we believe the post-Covid recovery will be different from the post-financial crisis period.

Brendan Mulhern
October 14, 2021
Macro views, Real Return
A monetary regime change or just a mild bout of inflation?
Blog

Inflation: The Only Question That Matters

We unpick the cozy consensus on inflation

Brendan Mulhern
August 25, 2021
Macro views, Real Return
On the defensive
Blog

On the Defensive

With protectionist measures on the increase globally, we discuss some of the opportunities and risks for investors.

Matt Brown
May 25, 2021
Macro views, Real Return
Is the stage set for inflation?
Blog

Is the Stage Set for Inflation?

Will inflation finally re-emerge in a post-pandemic recovery, and how can a balanced portfolio prepare for it?

Aron Pataki
February 2, 2021
Macro views, Real Return
State of play
Blog

State of Play

As policy intervention ratchets up to new levels in response to Covid-19, what are the implications for investors?

Matt Brown
January 18, 2021
Macro views, Real Return, Themes
Gold, Box, Treasure
Blog

Gold: Tailwinds?

We discuss the outlook for the precious metal.

Catherine Doyle
December 14, 2020
Macro views, Real Return, Sector research
Market melt-up?
Blog

Market Melt-Up?

Could the US election outcome and hopes of an imminent Covid-19 vaccine keep markets trending upwards?

Brendan Mulhern
November 12, 2020
Macro views, Real Return
US election
Blog

Biden: His Time

We assess the implications of Joe Biden’s US presidential election victory.

Paul Markham
November 9, 2020
Global equities, Macro views
US election
Blog

US Election: Bond Investors Shift Focus to 2021

We discuss how bond markets have responded to the US election.

Paul Brain
November 9, 2020
Fixed income, Macro views
Preserve and protect 
Blog

Preserve and Protect

There are significant risks on the horizon, but we believe opportunities are emerging.

Suzanne Hutchins
October 26, 2020
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Beyond Covid-19: The ‘U-Bend’ Recovery

Why we believe the post-pandemic economy will take some time to get back to pre-crisis levels.

Paul Brain
August 20, 2020
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research, Themes
Is volatility here to stay?
Blog

Is Volatility Here to Stay?

We provide our macro outlook for the second half of 2020.

Suzanne Hutchins
July 10, 2020
Defined contribution, Macro views, Real Return
US dollar: devalue to save the world?
Blog

US Dollar: Devalue to Save the World?

We assess how US-dollar strength will affect the global economy as it starts to recover from the pandemic.

Paul Brain
May 22, 2020
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
Blog

Looking Through the Pandemic: The Shape of the Recovery

We assess some potential consequences of the pandemic, and how they may play out in the global economy.

Paul Brain, Howard Cunningham
May 11, 2020
Fixed income, Macro views, Themes
Blog

Covid-19: The US Goes Big

We assess the potential impact of an unprecedented US fiscal stimulus package on markets.

Brendan Mulhern
March 26, 2020
Macro views, Real Return
Covid-19: Looking through the crisis
Blog

Covid-19: Looking Through the Crisis

We analyze the impact of Covid-19 on global bond markets in anticipation of the next stage.

Paul Brain
March 18, 2020
Fixed income, Macro views, Sector research
Blog

Coronavirus: Back from the Brink?

Coronavirus-induced volatility continues to plague markets, but are there some tentative early signs of recovery?

Brendan Mulhern
March 9, 2020
Macro views, Real Return
Going viral
Blog

Going Viral

How does the spread of coronavirus affect the global investment outlook?

Brendan Mulhern
February 7, 2020
Macro views, Real Return
A gilt-edged pledge?
Blog

A Gilt-Edged Pledge?

How the spending pledges from the two main British political parties could affect the UK's bond markets.

Howard Cunningham
December 12, 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
QE 4 to the rescue? Not quite…
Blog

QE 4 to the Rescue? Not Quite…

Does recent Federal Reserve activity hint at what lies ahead for US monetary policy?

Brendan Mulhern
December 9, 2019
Macro views, Multi-asset, Real Return, Sector research
Megacities medium
Blog

Megacities – Where Themes Collide

Our dynamic thematic framework helps identify structural growth opportunities created by rapid urbanization.

Newton global research team
November 28, 2019
Emerging markets & Asia, Macro views, Newton philosophy, Sector research
Blog

Towards the Light

Emerging-market governments and companies are attaching increasing importance to environmental, social and governance considerations.

Newton equity opportunities team
October 15, 2019
Macro views, Responsible investment, Sustainable
Blog

Two Become One

What could Boris Johnson’s appointment as UK prime minister mean for bond and currency markets, and Brexit strategy?

Howard Cunningham
July 23, 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Perspective on the Pivot

With financial markets threatening to bounce the Fed into a fresh easing cycle, we give our perspective.

Newton Real Return team
July 18, 2019
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Party Like It’s Norway (or Not)

The global liquidity party remains very much in evidence, despite the Norwegian central bank’s latest rate hike.

Jon Day
June 26, 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Population Prospects

Major demographic shifts will have pronounced implications for economies and investors.

Newton global research team
June 17, 2019
Macro views, Sector research
Blog

Trade Trouble

As tariffs are hiked again, where does the US-China trade war go from here?

Trevor Holder
May 30, 2019
Emerging markets & Asia, Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

The Rise and Rise of ‘MMT’ Economics

Modern Monetary Theory is gaining traction among policymakers, but what are the possible consequences for investors and markets?

Brendan Mulhern
May 23, 2019
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

What Now for Spain?

Political uncertainty could create short-term instability for Spanish bond spreads, but will it last?

Paul Brain
May 3, 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Populist push
Blog

Populist Push

A new ‘post-globalization’ era may have major implications for investors.

Andy Warwick
March 25, 2019
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Inflation: The Rise and Fall

With consumer price inflation remaining subdued despite extreme monetary policies, should investors still worry about inflation risk?

Newton Real Return team
March 22, 2019
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Charting the Course

What are the investment implications of the World Bank’s key charts of 2018?

Rebecca White
March 21, 2019
Macro views, Responsible investment
Blog

Groundhog May

Amid another tumultuous week, the outcome of the UK’s Brexit negotiations look even murkier.

Howard Cunningham
March 14, 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Tick Tock

As the bond-market cycle clock ticks on, we offer our outlook for 2019.

Paul Brain
February 15, 2019
Fixed income, Macro views
Around the world in global equities
Blog

Around the World in Global Equities

We assess the prospects for global equities in 2019.

Paul Markham
February 13, 2019
Global equities, Macro views
Blog

A Year of Two Halves?

With a decade of financial excess now behind us, the risks appear skewed to the downside.

Brendan Mulhern
February 11, 2019
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Brexit’s May day

The UK prime minister’s emphatic Brexit vote loss last night raises more questions than it answers.

Paul Markham
January 16, 2019
Global equities, Macro views
Blog

Downward Momentum

Trade confrontations may dominate the headlines, but deeper structural concerns are driving market movements.

Brendan Mulhern
December 10, 2018
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Is an ‘Italexit’ on the Cards?

A continuing budget dispute is leading to renewed speculation over an Italian exit from the European Union.

Paul Markham
November 28, 2018
Global equities, Macro views
Blog

U.S. Decoupling: Can It Last?

Can the U.S. equity market continue its stellar performance into 2019?

Brendan Mulhern
October 9, 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Global equities, Macro views
Blog

Turkey: the Canary in the Coal Mine?

Are Turkey’s travails a precursor of worse to come for the global financial system as quantitative tightening starts…

Brendan Mulhern
September 3, 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Macro views
Blog

The Big Not-So-Easy

China recently signaled a shift towards short-term economic growth by loosening monetary policy. Will this stimulate global reflation?

Brendan Mulhern
August 21, 2018
Macro views
Blog

Time to Unwind…

How U.S. monetary policy affects different sectors of the bond market at different times

Paul Brain
August 17, 2018
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Brexit: Deal or No Deal?

Everything you wanted to know about Brexit…but were afraid to ask.

Paul Markham
July 31, 2018
Macro views, UK equities
Blog

Call the Fire Department

We evaluate the current inflationary backdrop through the lens of our ‘fire risks’ investment theme.

Iain Stewart, Brendan Mulhern
June 19, 2018
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Planting the Seeds of Discord

Improvements sparked by the advent of the plough help to inform our view that trade wars produce no…

Brendan Mulhern
June 15, 2018
Macro views
Blog

Russia’s Rocky Road to Reform

With the FIFA World Cup fast approaching, can Russia sustain an economic recovery after its deep recession?

Newton equity opportunities team
June 8, 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Macro views
Blog

Tough Gig

What are the consequences of the increase in short-term contracts and freelance work for inflation and bond markets?

Paul Brain
May 31, 2018
Macro views
Blog

From ‘Doves’ to ‘Hawks’?

Analyzing the investment landscape against a backdrop of rising interest rates.

Paul Brain
May 22, 2018
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Fanning an Inflationary Fire?

A global trade war could fuel rising inflation and renewed volatility.

Paul Flood
May 18, 2018
Macro views, Multi-asset
Blog

A Perspective on Returns 3: Boom and Bust

Why we think this cycle has a significant chance of ending with a bang rather than a whimper.

Newton Real Return team
March 26, 2018
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

A Perspective on Returns 2: This Time It’s Different?

While many argue against the current economic cycle being a rerun of the last, we beg to differ.

Newton Real Return team
March 22, 2018
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

A Perspective on Returns 1: Where Are We Now?

Have we seen an extended cyclical bull market or sustainable secular expansion?

Newton Real Return team
March 20, 2018
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Ready for Take-Off

The structural growth story in global Chinese tourism could run for decades.

Newton global research team
February 8, 2018
Emerging markets & Asia, Macro views, Sector research
2021: better income outcomes?
Blog

What Next for Global Equities?

What lies ahead for global equity markets in 2018?

Paul Markham
January 26, 2018
Global equities, Macro views
Blog

What Lies Ahead for Fixed Income?

Where are opportunities for flexible fixed-income investors likely to arise in 2018?

Paul Brain
January 17, 2018
Fixed income, Macro views
Blog

Around the Block

Blockchain technology could revolutionize financial services.

Paul Markham
January 5, 2018
Macro views
Blog

The Great Deception

Is it time for central banks to disregard CPI as a guide for determining monetary policy?

Brendan Mulhern
November 27, 2017
Macro views, Real Return
Blog

Throwing a Curveball

Has a long-held central-bank assumption on what triggers inflation become obsolete?

Brendan Mulhern
September 3, 2017
Macro views
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This is a financial promotion. Issued by Newton Investment Management Limited, The Bank of New York Mellon Centre, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London, EC4V 4LA. Registered in England No. 01371973. Newton Investment Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, 12 Endeavour Square, London, E20 1JN and is a subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. Newton is registered with the SEC as an investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. Newton’s investment business is described in Form ADV, Part 1 and 2, which can be obtained from the SEC.gov website or obtained upon request. Material in this publication is for general information only. The opinions expressed in this document are those of Newton and should not be construed as investment advice or recommendations for any purchase or sale of any specific security or commodity. Certain information contained herein is based on outside sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. You should consult your advisor to determine whether any particular investment strategy is appropriate. This material is for institutional investors only. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Your capital may be at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the original amount invested. Unless you are notified to the contrary, the products and services mentioned are not insured by the FDIC (or by any governmental entity) and are not guaranteed by or obligations of The Bank of New York or any of its affiliates. The Bank of New York assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the above data and disclaims all expressed or implied warranties in connection therewith. © 2006 The Bank of New York Company, Inc. All rights reserved.